I met with a client last week who will be shopping in a few different neighborhoods in the new year. And as part of the... uh... let's call it "discovery process", he wanted to see some statistics on the market in those neighborhoods.
Considering the fact I haven't posted in nearly a month and that I have some fresh stats, I thought: "What the hell, stop being a jerk and put those stats up on that super-awesome site of yours. I mean, this content can't write itself. It needs your brilliant mind."
First things first - transactions...
My guess is that you're smart enough to ask the question: "How is 2009 relevant if it isn't over yet?" Well, it's relevant to me because December will not produce more than about 7-9% more closings (at most). In the West Loop, that would account for just 18 more closings (again - AT BEST) and drop the transaction loss from 2005 to 34%. Bottom line - the market took a huge hit in number of sales this year.
And yes - it took a big hit DESPITE the homebuyer tax credit that expired and was then renewed at the end of November.
Moral of (this part of) the story: the homebuyer tax credit extension will not turn the market on a dime in 2010.
On to prices...
We did start to see some Q3-Q4 price improvement in 2009. By improvement, what I mean is that the bleeding seems to have stopped (for now). Here's the picture...
For the CHB un-initiated, we measure 2/2's here to get a good thermometer of the overall market. You might be buying/selling a 3/2 or a 1/1 or a studio or coachouse or whatever... but the trends will be similar. If you bought in 2004/2005, in almost EVERY situation, you're likely down on price. But the picture might be a little better than it was earlier this year.
So what's next? We'll have to see some January/February numbers to start to get a picture for what will happen in 2010. My analysis: we'll not see any price improvement in 2010, and if transactions continue to fall on the northside, we'll continue to LOSE VALUE in 2010.
But my guess is - we're at the bottom. That's right folks, my VERY EARLY PREDICTION is that we're at the bottom of the northside Chicago housing market. And we're going to be sitting here on the floor for a while.
I can't wait to see what happens next :-)
