Chicago Housing Bubble

Quarter 1 is over. What did we learn?

After a few too many drinks on Saturday afternoon, I got curious about how our 2010's Q1 compares with 2009's Q1. And here's what I found:

I looked only at 4 neighborhoods. And this is condos only (not enough SFHs or 2/4 flats to get good numbers). Here's the bulletpoints:

• closings are up 64%
• prices are down 1.4%
• market time is down 14%

Is this the bottom? Well, we don't know yet. The pesky tax credit expiring will continue to skew the numbers through the end of June. Looking at the number of contracts written in May/June versus 2009 should be an interesting exercise. We'll have a good idea about what will happen next when we see those numbers.

 

Crains reports the Case-Shiller numbers for January

The Case-Shiller report was released yesterday, and the news is not good for real estate in Chicago. Bottom line, we lost 4.7% since last January (in prices), and we lost almost 1% since December.

And... of the 20 cities measured, Chicago fared the worst.

January was a slow month for me personally, but as the credit thing has warmed up the buyers market, things are starting to get a little nuts. April is going to be insane.

Albany Park's market is completely insane (WOW)

I happen to have a listing in Albany Park right now. It's a 1 bedroom, 1 bath condo with washer/dryer and an exceptionally well-run association.

ANYWAY - I was doing a check-in with my client about her listing and trying to figure out a strategy for our next steps. Before dropping the price, my client asked me a great question: "Since listing- have there been any one bedrooms that have sold in Albany Park?  If so, at what prince?"

So I looked it up. And here's what I found:

There have been only 2 listings in Albany Park that have moved this year so far. One is pending, the other is closed. Here are the details:

Unit 1: a 1/1 foreclosure that SOLD at $47,000

Unit 2: a 1/1 short sale PENDing at $65,000 list price.

I did NOT expect that! I sell a lot of real estate and keep my finger on the pulse of things. But I was flabbergasted that THIS is all that has moved in one full quarter in Albany Park.

WOW.

January Chicago-area home sales - chicagotribune.com

January Chicago-area home sales - chicagotribune.com

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North Center 2009 market results

Here are the 2009 market results for North Center.

Post questions or thoughts in the comments section if you have 'em.

The January condo results are in.

What will 2010 hold for us? It's tougher to say right now than it was at this time last year. There are 2 factors that are artificially propping up the market:

• super-low interest rates
• the $8000 closing cost credit

Not until these 2 things are gone will we know how the year will shake out. Until then, here's what we DO know so far:

Analysis: closings were down over 25% in 2009. That is the reason for the continued translation to lower prices. It should stay this way until we see a SUSTAINED improvement in contracts and closings. "Sustained" is the key word. It will be interesting to see what happens to the market when the Fed buyback of bad loans AND their housing credits both expire. Until then, things look artificially good right now.

Lincoln Square 2009 market results

OK. Back at it. I'm going to be posting 2009 market stats for all the neighborhoods on the northside. Forthcoming:

• Lincoln Park
• Lakeview
• Uptown
• Edgewater
• Lincoln Square
• North Center
• Logan Square
• Albany Park
• Irving Park
• Bucktown/Wicker Park
• South Loop
• West Loop

To start... here are the Lincoln Square results* - including condos, single-family homes, and 2-4 flats.

* You might notice that we hold Lincoln Square to Western on the west border. Don't yell. In my experience, this is how buyers shop. If you want numbers for further west, let me know...

My Realtor can beat up your Realtor

Yo Chicago! got all up in everyone's grill yesterday about Realtors.

Thanks for the support.

P.S. Does Yo Chicago have an exclamation point or not?

Your wish is my command

As requested by "Chris" about the first week of the year stats, here is some additional information about the contracts written for condos on the northside. 

Not much to see here, but I was happy to have done the analysis anyway. So far the only notable statistic is the number of contracts. Oh - and in case you're wondering why the 2010 number is 79 today and 76 yesterday - it's because sometimes contracts that were written on 01/07 don't get inputted into the MLS for a couple days. 

(This is also the reason I wait until about 10th to post the previous month's stats)

And in case you're wondering where the single-family home data is - I did this additional analysis ONLY for condos because the single-family home numbers are just too darn small.

News roundup for Tuesday

Here's today's news roundup. It's not as fun as stats, but it's something:

• Cabrini redevelopment gets bailout from City of Chicago (Crain's)
• What new buyers need to know (Yo Chicago)
• The national average for price reductions is 11% (Trulia)
• Eco-friendly homes on buyers minds (IAR)

More stats coming up.